Published Nov. 12, 2006 in the Hibbing Daily Tribune
By Aaron J. Brown
Recently, I read that a “futurist” was going to be speaking at a local library. At the time, I wondered what it must be like to be a futurist. Was there still enough time for me to switch careers? Do you get to put “futurist” on your tax return? Is filling out a tax return necessary for a futurist? I mean, don’t you know what’s coming? Paying taxes will seem rather silly when the robots come.
It seems few people like to consider the way the world will be in 50 years. Maybe it frightens them. Maybe the prospect that there’s more to the world than watching reality TV and drinking vodka coolers is too much for some. (Sorry for the spoiler, folks). Or maybe it’s just that we live in a hectic time and we don’t notice the time passing between when we leave college and when we retire and the doctor tells us that our blood is 40 percent gravy.
A recent edition of “Time Magazine” details statistics about the American people, including where they live, how they vote and what they do with their time. The issue doesn’t talk much about the future, but the current trends give any armchair futurist much to think about.
For instance, the American people will look much different in the future. According to the “Time” article, the only ethnic group that is reproducing at a rate large enough to replace themselves is Hispanic Americans. As our population grows it becomes more colorful, multi-lingual and less white. This will lead to changes in our collective culture and significant differences between regions of the country.
One interesting statistical view of America is our voting trends. We are trained by cable news stations to view the U.S. map in red (Republican) states and blue (Democrat) states. Still others (predominantly Republicans) like to view the country in red counties and blue counties, a map that shows a sea of red. But both of these views don’t take into account that few states or counties are solid red or blue. The “Time” article shows a map where counties are shaded on a red to blue spectrum based on how close the 2004 vote totals were. Looking at this map you see a few red counties out in the plains, a few blue counties near major cities, and hundreds of purple counties … in other words, most counties could switch parties rather easily.
Some of these counties did switch in last week’s election and could do so again in two years. Our leaders and their rhetoric may be polarized, but the average citizen is more willing to change their mind and vote than we have been led to believe. The political future of this country is by no means ordained by today’s political landscape. In fact, a complete political realignment could still occur based on frustration with our current dominant political parties. You must keep in mind that political realignment has already taken place several times in our history. Did you see a Whig on your ballot last week? Anyone vote straight ticket Federalist? We haven’t had a competitive new party in 100 years, and I bet I’ll see at least two in my lifetime. (Look, ma! I’m a futurist!)
It’s fun to be a futurist. A “New Republic” story by Jonathan Chait argued that the Clinton Administration’s 1990s view that more education and retraining will universally grow the quality of life for Americans is actually running into an almost Marxist clash with the political strength of the ultra-wealthy. College graduates are worse off now than they were 10 years ago. Historically, people haven’t abided these kinds of situations for long. (At last, a year of subscribing to the “New Republic” has given me the opportunity to sound smart in a column! Yee-haw!) Point is, what you see on TV and in the newspapers is just a snapshot. A nice house built on loose ground will eventually be toothpicks.
So, will you prepare for and attempt to shape the future? Anyone can be a futurist.
Aaron J. Brown is a columnist for the Hibbing Daily Tribune.